The militants who launched the car bombs clearly want to undermine the pro-Western governments in Riyadh and Ankara, but the attacks must also be viewed in broader terms. In the past year, al Qaeda (which officials have blamed in the Turkey attacks) and its regional affiliates have been attacking pro-Western Muslim regimes and soft targets from Tunisia to Indonesia, in a shift that is justified ideologically but is driven by necessity: Al Qaeda does not appear to have the capability to mount large-scale attacks inside the United States at the moment.

‘Heart of the Islamic World’

Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri, his second-in-command, have written of the need to shift the fight with the United States to "the heart of the Islamic world, which represents the true arena of the battle and the theater of the major battles in defense of Islam."

It is clear much of the terrorist activity in the past year in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Tunisia, Pakistan, and Yemen has been regionally motivated and organized with less command and control from al Qaeda's senior leadership. This is a result of a gradual erosion of al Qaeda's leadership and its inability to launch spectacular operations on U.S. soil. This view is gaining ground in the counter-terrorist community, but U.S. officials are wary of making such claims after failing to detect the presence of the Sept. 11 hijackers.

Since Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. officials and outside analysts agree that nearly 65 percent of al Qaeda's leaders have been killed or captured. About 3,400 al Qaeda suspects have been arrested in the United States and overseas, from Tunisia to Indonesia. Important logistical networks in Spain, Italy and Germany have been dismantled.

According to U.S. intelligence, most of the operatives who helped plan Sept. 11 have been accounted for, and those who have been captured have described their roles in the attacks. Al Qaeda's financial infrastructure is being steadily dismantled worldwide.

Much of the strength and growth of the organization during the 1990s resulted from its ability to operate from a geographical base with impunity, first in Sudan and then in Afghanistan. The training camps, safe houses and caves were the critical infrastructure for al Qaeda. That base is now gone. The leadership has splintered and gone underground.

Bin Laden, while alive, appears to be in hiding in the remote mountains of Pakistan and no longer in regular communication with his foot soldiers or his most senior deputy, Zawahiri. The London-based Control Risks Group said last week that al Qaeda's network has been largely dismantled and is leaderless.